Daily Bulletin

Friday August 27th 2021


An absolutely dead week from Wednesday on - and YET, we have a great bunch of smilies all over again. Some really great trading as you will see below...

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Lots of teaching in today's roundup edition of our bulletin. Let's remember that many of you are in the beginning stages of trading with this updated method. So my job is to point out where you may have been able to do a better job. Don't be phased by this. I am quite amazed how well most of you are doing. Let us all remember that we are on a learning curve and forex learning curves take a while to flatten out in the beginning ;-)

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Have a super weekend and look forward to next week and what it brings ;-)


1

Trend Pair*: AUD/JPY
Chart Time-Frame*: 8 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 25/08/21 01:07 PM
Time in Trade*: 1 day
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 53
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Buy
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: This pair had bounced up from a support area around 78.00. It was about mid-way up the previous red candle so I thought there might b e a bit more out of this retrace. Found a pullback in the 8 hour chart and set my grid. It went positive right away. It never went negative but did almost reach my entry point. It went back up, but never really came to much. Following the 1:30 pm announcements today it began to fall again so I decided to TTM and call it a day on this pair. The steam seems to have gone out of it.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: +9.8
ROI%? (+ or -)*: +0.38%
:
Name*: Rhonda
Location*: Scotland
Demo/Live*: Live

Once again with total emphasis on the weekly, I like the idea that you looked at the last red weekly candle and compared this week's candle as a rebalance that has only half done. There's a certain logic there which gave you a reason to enter - even though it gives no guarantees. Good thinking ;-)


2


Trend Pair*: CAD/JPY
Chart Time-Frame*: 4 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 25/08/21 03:30 PM
Time in Trade*: 22hrs
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 62
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Buy
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 4 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: CADJPY thx Rhonda. Although this pair had bounced off significant barrier at around 91.50 and the sentiment appeared to have changed to down, it was firmly rejected at 85.37 on the way down 3 times. Movement up from this rejection point was strong. Found a pullback in the 4hr and set grid with buy entry order which triggered 25 Aug. There was nothing in path of the move but was aware this could be a big pullback with limited life and it was already quite far into the move. It was positive most of the time but very slow, never more than +20. When it began heading back at a rate to BE just before red USD announcement I closed the trade.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: 0
ROI%? (+ or -)*: 0
:
Name*: Serena
Location*: Cape Town
Demo/Live*: Demo

Good try - and I'm pleased you are starting to read the weekly with more confidence ;-)


3

Trend Pair*: AUD/CHF
Chart Time-Frame*: 8 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 26/08/21 02:00 PM
Time in Trade*: 10 minutes
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 30
% of Capital *: 1.5%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Buy
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: Price continues to move up and based upon our meeting it seems this pair has made a bounce off 0.6510 weekly barrier. I found a pull back in the 8 hour chart. Cautious of a weekly barrier at 0.6650 I waited for the price to close above 0.6650. Price moved up quickly. Due to a recent change with Oanda email and password set-up my practice app doesn't work on my phone. Not being able to manage from work I closed the trade.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: +1.3
ROI%? (+ or -)*: +0.07
:
Name*: Phillip
Location*: California
Demo/Live*: Demo

Ok, considering why you closed the trade, and that the problem is now fixed, no point in commenting further, other than to say, that personally I would not bet the farm on this mving up much ;-)


4

Trend Pair*: GBP/USD
Chart Time-Frame*: 8 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 25/08/21 08:00 PM
Time in Trade*: 18
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 68
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Buy
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: Thank you Rhonda for flagging. GBPUSD was rejected at 1.3600 which was a previous low in July with strong rejection. The move up was strong with smallish wicks in 8hr. Found pullback, set grid with entry order set just above wicks to left. Entry triggered with a strong move up after a period of sideways rest and then hovered around for a long time not doing much. When it started retracing back from entry for the 3rd time I closed the trade as momentum up had faltered and may have been at an end of a pullback.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: -25
ROI%? (+ or -)*: -0.7%
:
Name*: Serena
Location*: Cape Town
Demo/Live*: Demo

Serena, were you aware that this was re'rentering a 9 week, 200 pip channel that it popped out of last week? I don't mind the negative trade at all because your current goal is two trades a week, negative or positive. Given that the idea of this goal is simply to get used to reading the weekly chart, I would have liked it if you had mentioned the channel and that you had drawn it in...


5

Trend Pair*: GBP/NZD
Chart Time-Frame*: 12 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 26/08/21 01:01 PM
Time in Trade*: 1hr, 28min
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 71
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Sell
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: This pair are on the downward leg of the channel with a bit more room to reach the bottom. After the strong push down earlier in the week, price had been going sideways for the last couple of days and this morning continued a good move down correlating with the EUR/NZD. With a decent sized stop and potential to reach TP1 (although with low rating so keeping a close eye), I entered as price pushed past the wick to the left and soon reached +12 but then retraced. After a lot of volatile back and forth I got out, having lost confidence in the trade and was conscious of several similar rejection points to the left.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: +9.2
ROI%? (+ or -)*: +0.26
:
Name*: Clare
Location*: Saffron Walden
Demo/Live*: Demo

Well, let's look at this, where you have plced the bottom of the channel is at 9600. I don't honestly think 9600 is anywhere near the actual current support.

This amount of precision is often not necessary unless, as in this instance, you are taking a sell trade so close to previous clear rejection points. As everyone is finding out, weekly analysis is not rocket science, it's really more about common-sense - and I do know you have plenty of that - but Clare, you have to apply it sweetie pie...

See below. The yellow line is your entry and the purple line is my three week support. You should not have entered a sell trade here ;-)


6

Trend Pair*: EUR/JPY
Chart Time-Frame*: 1 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 26/08/21 01:30 PM
Time in Trade*: 2hr 36min
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 17
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Sell
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 1 star
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 1 star
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 1 star
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: I saw the heads up on this from Rhonda this morning that this had a big run up this week which has been in a downtrend for the last 3 months. I was looking for a reversal continuing the downtrend. There were 4 times in 2018 this pair moved downward through this level where it bounced once and broke through 3 of them (last 3). I know its a stretch to say it had reversed but I was counting the wick on the previous green candle. as part of the Red candle. Any active trade here would be closely managed. I placed an entry order below my action candle and it triggered. It did go against me but never hit S/L reversing its way back down locking in 1% on its way. I allowed it to go through TP1 but closed when stalled.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: +22
ROI%? (+ or -)*: +2.6%
:
Name*: Jim
Location*: Chapel Hill
Demo/Live*: Demo

I think you were lucky here Jim because you traded on anticipation. Your pull-back candle is not even part of the change of direction and so it isn't a bona fide pull-back candle, which also means your grid is not drawn correctly. I'm afraid we can't trade on anticipation.

Looking at the price action over the last 12 weeks of downwards sentiment, there are two other pull-back weeks of well over 200 pips each - therefore this pull-back may not be over, so to anticipate a reversal was not really justified.

Also, may i say, it's kind of important not to overdo this reading of the weekly chart. The only thing you are really asked to do, is examine the path of a proposed trade to find out if there may be a serious rejection point in the path.

Don't get me wrong, it's great that you got a positive trade, but we need to keep you on the straight and narrow if and when you go a bit off course because this is foundational stuff that can't be blurred ;-)


7

Trend Pair*: AUD/USD
Chart Time-Frame*: 8 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 27/08/21 02:55 PM
Time in Trade*: 1 hour 5 mins
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 66
% of Capital *: 2.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Buy
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 1 star
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 2 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: This pair is retracing a long red candle in the weekly and is approaching a barrier. I felt it had enough room to grab a few pips. I knew there was a speech at 3 pm by Powell in the US so was set up to take a trade of the break of the current sideways movement, which is why you see both a blue and yellow entry order square. I was not planning a long-term trade so traded it until it ran out of steam. It was slow and went between 12 and 18 pips. Decided to TTM as it was not continuing.
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: +11
ROI%? (+ or -)*: +0.33%
:
Name*: Rhonda
Location*: Scotland
Demo/Live*: Live

Yes, placing two entry orders is something I will need to go into in more detail as I have only touched on this so far. As you see from Rhonda's report, after weekly chart analysis, she placed two entry orders so that in response to a speech fuelled sudden move, she would enter a trade in either direction, depending on what happened.

Wisely, as she reported, she was on hand to manage either actuality. And, of course, if it had simply continued sideways, there would have been no trade at all ;-)


8

Trend Pair*: GBP/AUD
Chart Time-Frame*: 12 hour
Date & UK Time of 1st Entry*: 27/08/21 11:03 AM
Time in Trade*: 3h 57min
Range: (Stop to Entry)*: 53
% of Capital *: 1.0%
Buy or Sell Trade*: Sell
:
:
Rate The Move Steepness (1 to 5)*: 4 stars
Rate The Price Action (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
OVERALL RATING (1 to 5)*: 3 stars
:
:
Relevant Details & Your Plan*: The pair has been in an uptrend since January. The weekly gave me the picture of a step ladder: move up, strong pullback to at least half the upcandle, several times the pullback candle(s) even reached to the bottom or below of the rising candle. This was sort of a pattern.
Plus looking at the three previous weeks, each of the lows was just a few pips higher than the previous weeks', thus forming a perfect line which was very likely to be continued. So my conclusion was that this weeks' red candle would come down to within a few pips of the bottom of last weeks' green candle.
And this weeks' red candle looked like the counterpart of last weeks' green one, with it's bounce just a few pips below last weeks' high, nearly identical wick and solid body.
I set an entry order which triggered pretty soon. The following move up was farther up than expected and my stop loss was hit before the pair plunged down to my anticipated point at the virtual line.
(I hope this makes sense, it's difficult for me to put this into words.)
:
Pips? (+ or -)*: -73
ROI%? (+ or -)*: -1,39
:
Name*: Ulrike
Location*: Austria
Demo/Live*: Demo

Fisrt, I don't think you can ever be as precise as you conclude in the first two paragraphs, but you are rigt, there is a pattern and it was a good bit of detective work Ulrike.

The full picture of the weekly is that this had been moving sidewyas in a 800 pip channel from the end of may until7 weeks ago when it broke out of the channel. I think that is relevant and I would have liked that included in your analysis. However, that is a small point, I mention it only because you are just beginning.

You actually called it correctly and only made one mistake. You should have extended your stop to somewhere above the highest wicks immediateely to the left. You see Ulrike, therewas meaningful history in those wicks. Three times out five, those wicks extended as far as 8950. You could have set your stop about 12 or 15 pips above that place and you wwould have been safe ;-)

As you know, your goal is currently to send in two trades a week, whether they are negative or positive. The whole idea of that goal is for you to carry out a trade and send a report. it is a specific 'hands-on' way of learning - and that is exactly whaat is taking place - you are learning.

Do not be frustrated because you got this negative trade. Your reading of the weekly was very good - and THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT.

So WELL DONE ;-)



Monday*: -74
Tuesday*: NTT
Wednesday*: NTT
Thursday*: 0, -25
Friday*: UTT
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: -99
Week's Total Roi %: -2.7
Accumulative ROI %: +1.6
:
Name*: Serena
Location*: Cape Town
Demo or Live: Demo

Your goal is to send in two trades aweek, = or - and that's
just what you did. You are learning many things, be happy
and enjoy the learning ;-)


Monday*: UTT
Tuesday*: +14.4
Wednesday*: NT
Thursday*: +9.2
Friday*: UTT
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: +23.6
Week's Total Roi %: +1.64
Accumulative ROI %: +8.88
:
Name*: Clare
Location*: Saffron Walden
Demo or Live: Demo

Well, you reached your goal of two positive trades this week.
Well done on that and the smilie - let's repeat this next week.
Well done Serena ;-)


Monday*: +41
Tuesday*: -20
Wednesday*: NT
Thursday*: NT
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional): a quiet week
:
Week's Total Pips: +21
Week's Total Roi %: 0
Accumulative ROI %: +42.85
:
Name*: Michelle
Location*: NZ

I think this is you first week below 2% for
more weeks than I can remember. Don't
make a habit of it Michelle ;-)


Monday*: 0
Tuesday*: +79.6, +87.6
Wednesday*: NT
Thursday*: NT
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: +167.2
Week's Total Roi %: +5.07%
Accumulative ROI %: +41.24%
:
Name*: Alison
Location*: Australia

That's another wonderful week for you Ali
even though you are away working. I think
this is absolutely excellent ;-)
WELL DONE...


Monday*: +30; +15; +40
Tuesday*: +67
Wednesday*: UTT
Thursday*: NT
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional): The week stalled from Wednesday onwards. Was this the Jackson Hole meeting?

Thanks for the meeting on Wednesday, again very useful targeted training on the weekly.
:
Week's Total Pips: 152
Week's Total Roi %: 6.03%
Accumulative ROI %: 71.81%


:
Name*: Mark
Location*: Skipton

And yet another fabulous week for you Mark.
Really a first class week's trading. I am so
impressed. WELL DONE...


Monday*: UTT
Tuesday*: NT
Wednesday*: UTT
Thursday*: +22 pips
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: +22
Week's Total Roi %: +2.6%
Accumulative ROI %: +23.06


:
Name*: Jim
Location*: Chapel Hill

Not quite the 3% for your goal jIm. but
definitely close enough for my money ;-)
WELL DONE...


Monday*: +8, +14
Tuesday*: NT
Wednesday*: NT
Thursday*: NT
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: +22
Week's Total Roi %: +0.85
Accumulative ROI %: +91.12
:
Name*: Mal
Location*: London
Demo or Live: Live

Resting on your laurels after the 15.6% last week Mal? ;-)


Monday*: -5, -6
Tuesday*: +68, +71
Wednesday*: +85
Thursday*: NT
Friday*: NT
:
Remarks (Optional): I'll email you regarding my next goal.
:
Week's Total Pips: +235
Week's Total Roi %: 4.2
Accumulative ROI %: 28.83


:
Name*: Geoff
Location*: Edinburgh
Demo or Live: Demo

Well, you have far exceeded your goal of
1.5% per week for four weeks Geoff. You've shown
some great and mature trading ability and you should
be extremely proud of your self...
WELL DONE ;-)


 

Monday*: +100.9, +41.3
Tuesday*: UTT
Wednesday*: NT
Thursday*: +9.8
Friday*: +11
:
Remarks (Optional):
:
Week's Total Pips: +163
Week's Total Roi %: +5.28%
Accumulative ROI %: +286.8%


:
Name*: Rhonda
Location*: Scotland
Demo or Live: Live

And as for you Rhonda...
WELL DONE - - - - - -YET AGAIN!!!


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